Caesars Q1 Results Miss Estimates as Regional Casinos, Sports Betting Lag

Shares of Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) slumped during Tuesday’s after-hours session, extending declines following a 4.66% drop during normal trading hours after the casino operator posted first-quarter results that badly missed Wall Street forecasts.

Caesars Digital
Caesars Palace Las Vegas. The operator said first-quarter earnings and revenue at its Las Vegas and regional casinos declined. (Image: YouTube)

The Harrah’s operator said it lost 73 cents a share on revenue of $2.74 billion in the first three months of the year. Analysts expected a loss of eight cents on sales of $2.83 billion. While the gaming company mentioned unfavorable outcomes on the Super Bowl and the NCAA Tournament as among the reasons the first-quarter numbers missed forecasts, analysts and investors might apply scrutiny to Caesars’ Las Vegas and regional casino results.

On the Strip where it’s the second-largest operator, Caesars revenue declined to $1.03 billion in the March quarter from $1.11 billion a year earlier. The gaming company said adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) at its Sin City venues declined to $440 million from $533 million a year earlier.

That could heighten concerns that activity is slowing down on the Strip following a multi-year run of pent-up demand sparked by coronavirus shutdowns.

Caesars Regional Woes Not Surprising

Caesars said its regional casinos posted first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $443 million on revenue of $1.37 billion, down from $448 million and $1.39 billion a year earlier.

The tepid results from the regional side of Caesars aren’t surprising because multiple operators have flagged softness at such venues due to bad weather in January that hampered visitation to gaming venues in Reno/Tahoe and the Midwest. Additionally, there are mounting signs of lower-tier bettors reducing spending at gaming venues in the South.

There have been signs that high interest, sticky inflation, and other macroeconomic headwinds are weighing on some gaming venues in the Midwest and the South. Likewise, six of the nine casinos in Atlantic City, NJ experienced profit declines last year as more locals embraced iGaming.

“Moving past the first quarter headwinds, we remain optimistic toward improved operating results throughout the balance of the year,” said CEO Tom Reeg in a statement.

Modest Progress on Debt Reduction

Entering this year, analysts and investors wanted to see more evidence of Caesars trimming its debt burden — one of the industry’s largest. There were incremental signs of that progress in the first quarter. As of March 31, the Horseshoe operator had $12.436 billion in outstanding liabilities compared to $12.439 billion at the end of 2023.

At the end of the March quarter, Caesars had cash and cash equivalents of $726 million, a figure that does not include $139 million in restricted cash.

“Excluding joint venture capex, we estimate 2024 cash capex spend of $800 million. We anticipate using free cash flows to continue to reduce debt in 2024,” said CFO Bret Yunker in the press release.

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DraftKings Positioned to Beat Q2 Estimates, Says Stifel Analyst

With the stock up a staggering 165.5% year-to-date, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is heading towards arguably its most important earnings report as a public company.

DraftKings
Inside DraftKings’ Nevada office. The company is heading toward a vital earnings update on Thursday. (Image: Nevada Independent)

The only sportsbook operator is scheduled to deliver second-quarter results on Thursday after the close of US markets with a conference call slated for Friday morning. Analysts expect the gaming to post a loss of 25 cents a share based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) on revenue of $758.29 million for the June quarter.

Over the past 90 days, 17 of the analysts covering DraftKings upwardly revised earnings forecasts while none lowered estimates. In a since deleted tweet, CEO Jason Robins provided something of a tease, noting the gaming company notched 80% revenue growth in the first quarter in “vintage” states, or those in which DraftKings has been operational since 2018-19.

He added the company is experiencing “strong growth” in existing states and that there’s “massive potential in new markets.” Although the only specific data point mentioned in the tweet was already known to public investors, there’s speculation that the post may be in violation of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Fair Disclosure policies.

Big Test for DraftKings

DraftKings stock has a penchant for big post-earnings moves in either direction and it’s likely that expectations of positive effects from higher hold and declining costs are baked into the share price.

We see a likely upward bias to estimates, reflecting continued execution on product, sustained rationality in market-wide marketing/promos, and newfound cost discipline,” wrote Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial in a note to clients this evening. “However, longer-term we see risk of market share compression as DraftKings rationalizes customer acquisition spend, well-capitalized entrants expand in the U.S., and omni-channel competitors catch-up on product.”

Adding to the burden on DraftKings to deliver the goods tomorrow is the point that, as Stantial notes, the stock is stretched on valuation following this year’s run to the upside.

On the other hand, if DraftKings reports a narrower-than-expected loss and tightens its timeline to profitability, investors may be content to pay up for shares of company that is an entrenched online sports betting leader and adding iGaming market share.

“Still, we expect it will prove difficult to dislodge OSB market share from DraftKings/FanDuel without outsized marketing/promotional campaigns, and increasingly believe it may ultimately require impactful product innovation or structural industry evolution (e.g. transition to more in-play wagering) for a third player to rise to national prominence,” added Stantial.

Speaking of Profitability…

Heading into tomorrow’s earnings report, there may be added burden on DraftKings to provide positive insight regarding when it will stop losing money because rivals BetMGM and Caesars Digital recently posted profitable quarters.

Even if that news doesn’t arrive Thursday, DraftKings is trending in the right direction when it comes to generating significant earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in the coming years.

“Should current market share & margin expansion trends persist, we believe ~$1B of Adj. EBITDA in 2025E is feasible,” concludes Stantial.

 

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