Los Angeles Clippers a Favorite to Add James Harden in a Trade

The Philadelphia 76ers and guard James Harden are headed for a divorce. The Los Angeles Clippers and New York Knicks are among the betting favorites to land Harden in a trade from the 76ers, with the Clippers at -250 odds and the Knicks at +650.

James Harden
Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden, seen here bringing the ball up the court at Wells Fargo Arena, is the subject of offseason trade rumors to the Los Angeles Clippers. (Image: Getty)

Harden turns 34-years old in August. He averaged 21 points, 10.7 assists, and 6.1 rebounds per game last season with the 76ers. He scaled back his scoring and led the league in assists while he took on the role of playmaker who set up is teammates. Although Harden only averaged seven 3-point attempts per game this season, he knocked down 38.5% of his 3-pointers, which was the second-best percentage of his career and his best clip in a decade.

Several teams are in the running for Harden’s services according to a prop bet from DraftKings. The Clippers are the outright favorite to secure Harden in a trade at -250 odds. The 76ers are +380 odds to retain Harden for the start of the season, but they could still potentially deal him later in the season.

The Knicks are third on the betting board at +650 odds to add Harden in a trade, followed by the Miami Heat at +800, Dallas Mavericks (+1200), Rockets (++1600), Los Angeles Lakers (+2000), Phoenix Suns (+2500), New Orleans Pelicans (+4000), Minnesota Timberwolves (+4000), Milwaukee Bucks (+5000), Portland Trail Blazers (+5000), and Oklahoma City Thunder (+5000).

Quickie Divorce Between the 76ers and Harden

The 76ers (54-28) secured the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, but had another disappointing postseason exit when they were eliminated by the Boston Celtics in the conference semifinals. The team parted ways with head coach Doc Rivers, and hired Nick Nurse.

Free agency officially started on Friday, but all signs last weekend suggested that Harden would explore free agency and sign with another team instead of opting in for a final year of his contract. The Houston Rockets, one of Harden’s former teams, emerged as betting favorites to add Harden in free agency.

Earlier this week, The Athletic reported that Harden would not explore free agency and he would exercise a player option for the 2023-24 season worth $35.6 million. The 76ers said they would explore trade options and field offers for Harden, and Harden indicated that he’d prefer to join the Clippers.

When oddsmakers opened the NBA futures markets for next season in early June, the 76ers were +1300 odds to win the 2023-24 NBA championship. The 76ers are currently +1500 odds amidst all the Harden drama.

The Beard Goes to Hollywood: Clippers -250

The Athletic floated a Harden trade scenario to the Clippers in a recent article. The 76ers would send Harden and forward Tobias Harris to the Clippers in exchange for guard Paul George, sixth man Norman Powell, and forward Marcus Morris.

The Clippers have been soft shopping George in the media over the last two weeks. Several rumors suggested the Clippers would trade George to the Knicks, but the local media in the Big Apple quickly dispelled those rumors. However, in the last 24 hours, a swap for Harden and George has been gaining momentum.

Harden Returns to NYC: Knicks +650

The Knicks are often mentioned in high-profile trade rumors, but they seldom come to fruition like the ubiquitous Damian Lillard trade rumor that won’t die down.

During the 2023 playoffs, multiple talking heads were calling for the Knicks to trade forward Julius Randle. When the postseason ended, rumors surfaced that the Knicks were looking at trading Randle to the Minnesota Timberwolves for big man Karl-Anthony Towns or sending Randle to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for forward Brandon Ingram.

Shortly after the 76ers fired Rivers, airwaves were filled with trade chatter involving the Knicks and center Joel Embiid.

Harden forced a trade out from the Brooklyn Nets in 2022, but could he return to Gotham to play for the Knicks? Fans in the tri-state area have mixed feelings about Harden returning to New York City. If the Knicks work out a trade with the 76ers, then Embiid is the preferred target and not Harden.

Any trade package for Harden would entail the Knicks dealing swingman RJ Barrett, sixth man Josh Hart, backup point guard Immanuel Quickly and a first-round draft pick.

South Beach Harden: Heat +800

The Miami Heat secured the #8 playoff seed through the play-in tournament, but then got hot in the playoffs and ran the table to win the Eastern Conference title. They ran out of gas in the NBA Finals, but lacked the fire power to keep up with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Denver Nuggets.

The Heat have had the hots for Bradley Beal for a couple of seasons, but they were unable to work out a trade. The Washington Wizards dealt Beal to the Phoenix Suns in an unexpected trade, which sent ripples through the NBA. The Suns dealt point guard Chris Paul to the Wizards in the Beal trade, but the Wizards quickly flipped Paul to the Golden State Warriors.

In the meantime, the Heat shifted their focus on adding Damian Lillard in a trade with the Portland Trail Blazers. Earlier this week, the Trail Blazers shot down the Heat’s best trade offer, but the Heat are not going to give up so easily.

Although the Lillard trade talks cooled down, but the Heat could make a pitch for Harden in a deal that includes forward Caleb Martin, a pair of first-round picks, and either point guard Kyle Lowry or shooting guard Tyler Herro.

The Heat need help in their backcourt. They already lost guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in free agency, and traded Victor Oladipo to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the last 24 hours.

Rip City Harden: Trail Blazers +5000

The Portland Trail Blazers won one NBA championship during the 1976-77 season, when they were led by a bearded hippie named Bill Walton. The Trail Blazers have not won a title in 46 years, despite a pair of NBA Finals appearances in the early 1990s. Could another bearded NBA star finally lead the Trail Blazers back to the promised land?

The Trail Blazers stated their intentions to build a championship squad around Damian Lillard. They did not trade the #3 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft despite numerous offers from teams seeking to move up in the draft. They retained their lottery pick and selected guard Scoot Henderson instead.

If the 76ers trade Harden to the Pacific Northwest, then the Trail Blazers can form a Lillard/Harden backcourt. If that happens, the Trail Blazers would have to send recently-drafted Henderson and either one of their top up-and-coming guards Anfernee Simons or Shaedon Sharpe to the 76ers.

However, on Saturday morning, Shams Charania reported that Lillard officially requested a trade and that the Heat and 76ers are leading candidates to land the seven-time NBA All-Star. The 76ers and Trail Blazers are currently discussing a swap for Harden and Lillard.

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Australian Inquiry Suggests Federal iGaming Regulation, Complete Ban on all Gambling Ads

australian_inquiry_suggests_federal_igaming_regulation_complete_ban_on_all_gambling_adsThe government of Australia looks poised to ban all gambling advertising across all forms of media if it follows a scathing report compiled from a parliamentary inquiry into the subject.

Over 30 recommendations are presented in the report, and several of them are focused on advertising and other ways to protect vulnerable persons. A committee on social policy and legal affairs in the House of Representatives took an in-depth look at problem gambling in the country, specifically among online gambling participants. One thing that makes the harsh assessment of the situation even more eye-opening is that the Australian government does not even allow for online casinos and licensed gambling is restricted mostly to sports and race betting.

Australians lose more per capita to online gambling than punters in any other country – while the government took in AU$1.60bn in taxes in 2022. Online gambling participation surged during the pandemic and continues above pre-pandemic levels.

Phazed-in Blanket Ban on All Forms of Gambling Advertisements

Among the proposals in the inquiry are an outright ban on all gambling advertisements in the country including those delivered over social media or other online portals directed at Australian players as well as all traditional media including newspapers, television, billboards, or any other message delivery system. Small local radio stations would be exempt until 2025 and dedicated racing channels would remain exempt.

The ban would be implemented in four steps over the next three years.

Recommendation 26
5.148
The Committee recommends the Australian Government, with the cooperation of the states and territories, implement a comprehensive ban on all forms of advertising for online gambling, to be introduced in four phases, over three years, commencing immediately.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese indicated that the government will take all of the recommendations under advisement.

Albanese said on ABC Gold Coast radio: “We need to deal with online issues, we need to deal with social media issues, we need to deal with it comprehensively across the board.”

Committee Chair, Peta Murphy, said in the summary, “Australians outspend the citizens of every other country on online gambling. This is wreaking havoc in our communities. Saturation advertising ensures our future losses. Only online wagering service providers (WSPs), major sporting organisations and media gain from the status quo. This inquiry heard evidence from gamblers who lost and were encouraged by WSPs to gamble more; and from those who won and were prevented from gambling further. Any business model which encourages harm deserves to be closely scrutinised.”

The title of the inquiry was changed about a month after it was adopted by the committee in late 2022 and an invitation to comment was changed to include “people with lived experience of gambling harm to participate,” which indicates the direction it had been headed from nearly the beginning. One month later the written comment period ended.

The final working title is: “You win some, you lose more” and the introduction to the inquiry report is titled as follows: “Inquiry into online gambling and its impacts on those experiencing gambling harm”.

The report can be read in its entirety or downloaded in separate segments here.

Membership of the Committee was comprised of the following:

Committee Chair and Members

Chair
Ms Peta Murphy MP
Australian Labor Party, Dunkley VIC

Deputy Chair
Mr Pat Conaghan MP
The Nationals, Cowper NSW

Member
Ms Kate Chaney MP
Independent, Curtin WA

Member
Ms Mary Doyle MP
Australian Labor Party, Aston VIC

Member
Mr Sam Lim MP
Australian Labor Party, Tangney WA

Member
Ms Louise Miller-Frost MP
Australian Labor Party, Boothby SA

Member
Hon Shayne Neumann MP
Australian Labor Party, Blair QLD

Member
Ms Jenny Ware MP
Liberal Party of Australia, Hughes NSW

Member
Mr Keith Wolahan MP
Liberal Party of Australia, Menzies VIC

The inquiry allowed “both sides” of the issues to be presented and gave opposing views provided by researchers, consumer advocates, and stakeholders, including those in social gambling realms which some parts of the inquiry defined as “targeting children”.

While some researchers have indicated that any causality between social gaming and real money problem gambling or between advertising and gambling harm is “tenuous at best”, some strong arguments were presented on the “prohibition” side of the equation with scholarly research to back them up as well.

In trying to determine whether or not to make changes to the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, the MPs came up with a list of possible changes needed to social gaming, loot boxes, and “skin gambling” that may look like better casino training for children by exposing them to responsible gambling measures as employed in various jurisdictions for real money gambling. These include the following:

  • Display the odds for winning each prize
  • Provide loot box contents at a fixed and reasonable price so players do not need to chase desired items
  • Fix odds of loot boxes so that different odds cannot be offered to different players based on their playing or spending patterns
  • Fix sets of prizes
  • List prizes and prices in real money terms
  • Include an age verification system
  • Allow players to track expenditure
  • Allow players to self-exclude from games

Pushback on Total Gambling Ad Ban

Responsible Wagering Australia (RWA) represents the country’s largest real-money gambling operators, In a statement, the trade organization called on the government to take a more balanced approach than an outright ban. The ban recommendation did not include evidentiary reasoning according to the group’s CEO, Kai Cantwell who stated in an industry response:
“RWA members, along with broadcasters and major sporting codes have publicly acknowledged that there is a growing desire in the community to see less gambling advertising..

However, blanket bans, even in a phased roll-out, are short-sighted, ineffective and are not the answer.

Cantwell continued, “We know that strict changes – like blanket bans and banning inducements, such as bonus bets – often prove ineffective in addressing problem gambling, with Australians instead turning to illegal offshore markets as they seek out these options.”

Would Federalized Regulation Open the Door for Online Casinos?

In Australia, gambling is regulated and licensed at the state level, not federally. Under the current law and system, although online casinos would be completely legal today if licensed in a state or territory, none have taken it upon themselves to do so. However, no federal law exists to discourage residents from gambling offshore – they are free to do so if they choose to.

It’s unclear if the committee’s recommendation to change the regulation and licensing to the federal level would encourage stronger advocacy for the licensing and regulation of online casinos or further complicate it for prospective operators as all of the opponents of online casino gambling would remain in play with a slightly different power dynamic, and any advocates would face the same opposition as they do at the state level along with a unified voice if the national mood of politicians were to be against it.

A Single Federal Online Gambling Harm Ombudsman?

The inquiry suggests that a single minister should handle gambling harm mitigation at the federal level. It also suggests that there should be new taxes levied on existing operators to fund gambling harm specifically, a public education campaign on gambling harm reduction, and a harsher crackdown on unlicensed offshore operators. A ban on deposit incentives or inducements such as bonuses would come into effect if all recommendations were put in place.

Source: Australia mulls gambling ad ban after report, iGaming Business, June 28, 2023

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IGT Considers Selling Off/Listing PlayDigital and Global Gaming Assets

igt_considers_selling_off_Listing_play_digital_and_global_gaming_assetsCasino equipment maker and digital gaming content provider International Game Technology Plc (IGT) has announced that its board of directors is “evaluating potential strategic alternatives” for the group’s global gaming and PlayDigital segments, “in order to unlock the full value of IGT’s portfolio.”

IGT’s board of directors is considering a broad range of potential alternatives, including but not limited to a sale, merger or spin-off, as well as retaining and further investing in the global gaming and PlayDigital businesses,” the firm said in a Thursday press release.

Lottery Giant Behind IGT Name

Formerly known as Gtech S.p.A. and Lottomatica S.p.A. until a takeover of Si Red’s Las Vegas, Nevada-based IGT in 2015, the group is a multinational gambling company that produces various gambling technology including slot machines. While the company is headquartered in the UK, it maintains major offices in Rome, Providence, Rhode Island, and Las Vegas, and is controlled, with a 51 percent stake, by De Agostini, an Italian company founded in 1901.

The overall company, which includes the world’s largest lottery supplier by gross receipts, generated over $400 billion in revenues.

IGT’s chief executive, Vince Sadusky, said in a statement that the company remained “focused on the execution <of its> growth objectives and multi-year goals” as outlined in November 2021, and is reviewing and evaluating strategic alternatives for the gaming and digital segments. At that time the company noted its digital and betting businesses were to be included in a potential public listing of assets.

Regardless of the outcome of this process, IGT is well-positioned to deliver on its long-term growth and profit targets,” noted Sadusky in the Thursday announcement.

Mediobanca, Deutsche Bank, and Macquarie Capital have been brought in as financial advisors in concert with Sidley Austin and White & Case acting as legal counsel for the potential public listing.

Global gaming revenue for the group for the first quarter of 2023 was up more than 21% compared to a year ago at US$389 million. Digital and betting segment revenues stood at $47m one year ago and have risen to $55m. The first three months of the year generated $23m in net profits for shareholders with revenues up nearly 1% and just brushing past $1.06b.

The company would appear to be flush with cash and an increasingly powerful credit profile. From January 1, 2023, to the end of the first quarter, net debt dropped from $5.15b to $5.12b as the company started the year with “significant cash flow generation and further improvement” in its credit profile.

No Decisions Have Been Made

On Thursday, the company noted that “No decision has been made regarding any alternative, there is no timeline for the review and there can be no assurance that the exploration of strategic alternatives will result in any transaction.”

Marco Sala, the executive chair was quoted in the information release: “Over the last three years, IGT has sharpened its strategic focus by reorganizing around core product verticals, monetizing non-core assets, reducing structural costs, and significantly improving its credit profile.

Sala added: “We believe the intrinsic value of IGT’s market-leading businesses and diversified cash flow profile is not currently reflected in our stock price and the timing is right to assess opportunities that may enhance value for IGT’s shareholders.

Stock prices were up at the close of trading on Thursday nearly 4% after the announcement at $31.50.

For decades, Gtech/Lottomatica competed and sometimes cooperated with Scientific Games, the other world lottery leader. However, Scientific Games restructured and rebranded itself to Light & Wonder. Major changes included the sale of its lottery business which still retains the Scientific Games name for about $5b and offloaded its sportsbetting business for about $800m. Light and Wonder’s stock price closed more than double that of IGT at $66.97 Thursday.

Source:

IGT mulls possible sale, spin-off of gaming, digital units, GGRAsia, June 9, 2023

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Brightline Wins $25M Grant to Build Vegas-SoCal High-Speed Rail Stations

The high-speed train that Brightline West has proposed to connect Las Vegas and Southern California chugged another step closer to reality this week. On Wednesday, the US Department of Transportation announced it had awarded $25 million for the construction of passenger stations in the high-desert California towns of Hesperia and Apple Valley.

A rendering of one of two high-desert stations Brightline West received a $25M public grant this week to build on the California side of its proposed 218-mile high-speed rail line to Vegas. (Image: Brightline West)

“This will provide a direct link between the High Desert, Rancho Cucamonga, downtown Los Angeles, and our own East Valley, reducing the need to rely on personal vehicles for daily commutes, improving air quality, and closing the live-work gap for millions of people,” Raymond Wolfe, executive director of the San Bernardino County Transportation Authority, which received the grant, stated in a press release distributed on Wednesday.

This award, made through the Biden Administration’s Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity (RAISE) discretionary grant program, bodes well for the project. However, the real deal-breaker is the $3.75 billion that Brightline West applied for, along with the Nevada Department of Transportation, from the Federal-State Partnership for Intercity Passenger Rail grant program in April. That program, authorized by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, publicly funds projects that expand or establish new intercity passenger rail service.

So far, the US Department of Transportation also approved $1B in private activity bonds, with the actual borrowing up to the states of California and Nevada.

The high-speed rail proposed by Brightline West will run along the center of Interstate 15 from Rancho Cucamonga in California to Las Vegas. (Image: Brightline West)

Off the Rails

Brightline West claims its $12 billion project will be the first truly high-speed rail system in America, with trains capable of speeds of 200 miles per hour whooshing past vehicular traffic along Interstate 15’s right of way. Brightline projects an average Las Vegas-Los Angeles travel time of 2 hours and 15 minutes.

According to Brightline, the project will eliminate 3 million cars annually from the travel corridor and create 35K jobs, including 10K union construction jobs and close to 1,000 permanent jobs for operations and maintenance. In February, Brightline West entered an agreement with 24 rail unions, committing it to use organized labor to operate and maintain the system.

According to Brightline West, the project will generate more than $10 billion in economic impact to California and Nevada.

Station to Station

In July 2021, Brightline purchased 110 acres for its Las Vegas terminus station at Las Vegas Boulevard between Warm Springs and Blue Diamond roads, only three miles from the southern end of the Las Vegas Strip. Brightline West is also expected to include a stop at the future Southern Nevada Supplemental Airport, which is expected to open by 2037 between Primm and Jean. Nev.

At its Southern California end, the high-speed rail will connect passengers to Metrolink’s San Bernardino commuter rail service for the final 40 miles to LA’s Union Station. Originally, plans called for a California terminus in Victorville, Calif, but in October 2022, Brightline brought its terminus 40 miles closer to LA by purchasing 5 acres for a station in the city of Rancho Cucamonga.

Slow Train Coming

Brightline West said it hopes to build its rail line in time for the 2028 Olympics Games in Los Angeles. Even by that optimistic timetable, however, the project will have taken nearly 20 years from the time it was first envisioned.

Planning for a high-speed rail link connecting Las Vegas with Southern California began in 2009 when the Federal Railroad Administration completed a draft environmental plan for a project, which was then known as DesertXpress. Brightline acquired the project in 2018.

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VICI Credit Rating Affirmed at BBB-, Outlook Stable

VICI Properties’ (NYSE: VICI) corporate credit grade was affirmed at “BBB-“ with a “stable” outlook in a new report by Fitch Ratings.

Caesars asset sale
Caesars Palace on the Las Vegas Strip. Owner VICI Properties maintained an investment-grade credit rating at Fitch. (Image: CNN)

That means the largest landlord on the Las Vegas Strip carries the lowest possible investment-grade credit rating. Fitch noted that an upgrade to that mark is possible if the real estate investment trust (REIT) can sustain a net debt/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) ratio below 4.5x, if it diversifies its tenant base and if VICI and its rivals show the ability to easily tap capital markets if needed.

In terms of tenant diversification, VICI’s two biggest clients are MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), providing the REIT with significant exposure to the Las Vegas Strip as well as a slew of regional casino markets.

VICI’s client roster also includes Apollo Global Management, Century Casinos and Hard Rock International, among others, confirming the gaming REIT is diverse across regions and casino sizes. However, Fitch notes MGM and Caesars combine for 76% of VICI’s adjusted revenue.

VICI Favorable Fundamentals

At a time of elevated stress in some corners of the commercial real estate market, namely office space, VICI stands tall in the broader real estate sector. Strong rent collections and an ability to thrive in inflationary environments are among the factors underpinning the REIT’s investment thesis.

Positively, the company has stable occupancy and rent collections with CPI-linked escalators, though overall gaming REITs have weaker contingent liquidity compared with more traditional CRE property types, which is a drag on the rating,” according to Fitch. “The ratings also contemplate Fitch’s expectation of deleveraging below 5.5x by YE 2024; if deleveraging is delayed as a result of operational issues or capital allocation, the ratings or Outlook may be revised.”

Due to a spate of deal-making over the past couple of years that significantly expanded the REIT’s client and property rosters, VICI’s leverage is running toward the higher end of the historical range. However, Fitch believes the company can drive that figure down to 5x to 5.5x by the end of 2024.

“Deleveraging will result from a combination of annual contractual increases in rental income (all fixed but includes potential upside from CPI-linked escalators) and whether retained cash flow post-merger is directed toward acquisitions,” added the ratings agency.

VICI Could Be Longer-Term Candidate for Better Ratings

Better credit ratings are imperative for any company because the higher an issuer’s grade is, the more it saves in interest payments when it sells corporate debt.

Ratings agencies, such as Fitch, typically don’t take corporate downgrades or upgrades lightly, but VICI is a credible candidate for a credit grade boost over the long haul. The ongoing desirability of Las Vegas and regional casino real estate is one reason why.

“Positively, non-traditional owners have increasingly been purchasing Las Vegas real estate (e.g. private equity), which has led to cap rate compression and is a longer term positive as it relates to the attractiveness of Las Vegas gaming real estate,” concluded Fitch. “Regional gaming outperformed many of the other hard-hit sectors during the pandemic, which should also be a longer-term positive as it relates to the attractiveness of regional gaming real estate.”

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