Donald Trump 2024 Odds Hold Steady Despite Another Federal Probe

Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s been notified by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) of a federal probe into his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election won by President Joe Biden.

Donald Trump 2024 odds Joe Biden presidential election
Former President Donald Trump stops at a restaurant in Miami’s Little Havana on June 13, 2023. Trump is expected to soon be indicted by a federal grand jury for a second time. (Image: Getty)

The DOJ inquiry is the latest federal investigation into the 45th president of the United States.

Trump was hit with a 37-count federal indictment last month for his alleged mishandling of classified documents that he took with him after being evicted from the White House to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach. In March, Trump was indicted in New York on 34 felony charges of allegedly falsifying business records.

Despite the legal issues surrounding his 2024 presidential campaign — the billionaire and former casino tycoon’s fourth official presidential effort — Trump remains the betting front-runner to secure the Republican Party’s nomination to challenge Biden next year.

Odds Hold Steady

On the online political betting exchange PredictIt, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win the GOP’s presidential ticket for a third consecutive time.

PredictIt’s market asking, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?” has Trump’s shares at 60 cents.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), once seen as the GOP favorite and the potential new leader of the Republican party, has run a lackluster 2024 campaign since announcing his bid via Twitter in May. DeSantis’ 2024 shares for the Republican ticket are at just 20 cents.

American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has the third-shortest GOP odds at 10 cents. Winning PredictIt shares are redeemed at $1 once the market is resolved.

Though he faces a myriad of federal charges, Trump says the allegations are meritless and represent just the latest in the Democrats’ ongoing “witch hunt.”

Deranged [DOJ Special Counsel] Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter … stating that I am a target of the January 6th grand jury investigation and giving me a very short four days to report to the grand jury, which almost always means an arrest and indictment,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“So now, Joe Biden’s Attorney General Merrick Garland, who I turned down for the United States Supreme Court (in retrospect, based on his corrupt and unethical actions, a very wise decision!), together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third indictment and arrest of Joe Biden’s number one political opponent,” Trump added.

Biden 2024 Favorite

Trump went on to claim that he’s “dominating” Biden in the 2024 presidential race, a claim that’s not necessarily backed by recent polling and odds.

According to the recent polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics, Biden maintains a slim 0.4-point advantage over Trump. PredictIt bettors also believe the incumbent is the front-runner with 475 days until the Nov. 5, 2024, Election Day.

Biden’s shares on the PredictIt market, “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” are trading at 44 cents to Trump’s shares at 37 cents. DeSantis is a distant third at 14 cents. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and VP Kamala Harris round out the top five, with their shares respectively at 10 cents and four cents.

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Illinois Casino Outlook Steady as New Supply Comes to Market

Outside of Nevada, Illinois is one of the largest land-based casino markets in the US — heft that’s increasing with new venues coming online. A sell-side analyst sees vibrancy in the state’s gaming industry.

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Illinois’ casino market is evolving. An analyst believes that’s positive for operators.(Image: OZinOH/Flickr.com)

That’s relevant at a time when Danville, Rockford and Waukegan are homes to new casino hotels and as the debut of a temporary casino – a prelude to a permanent venue – nears in Chicago. Truist Securities gaming analyst Barry Jonas recently returned from visits to a broad swath of Illinois gaming properties, noting management teams are constructive on patrons’ spending patterns against the backdrop of a challenging macroeconomic outlook.

Property management teams noted the Great Recession was driven by excesses beyond players’ means (e.g., customers using equity from their overvalued homes). Trends today are more normal and steady, generally within players’ means,” noted the analyst.

On a year-over-year basis, Illinois gross gaming revenue (GGR) jumped 6.5% in the first three months of this year, but is trending lower in the current quarter as lower tier bettors scale back discretionary spending.

Illinois Casino Market Bracing for New Competitors

When accounting for venues that are either temporary or under construction, there are 16 casinos in Illinois.

Some of the temporary and newer venues come courtesy of tribal operators Hard Rock International (Rcokford) and Wind Creek (East Hazel Crest) as well as Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL). That company The Temporary is already off to a stellar start and will eventually give way to the American Place, which is expected to be one of the operator’s biggest revenue drivers.

By number of venues, Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN) is the largest operator in Illinois with four casinos. The largest regional casino company is moving riverboat casinos in Aurora and Joliet ashore to what Jonas described as “materially improved locations.”

Among publicly traded gaming companies, Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) is next largest in Illinois with two properties, which Bally’s (NYSE: BALY) will tie with the debut of Chicago’s first gaming venue in 2026.

Speaking of Bally’s Chicago…

It’s possible that Rhode Island-based Bally’s could have its temporary Chicago casino in the River North open sooner-than-anticipated. Truist’s Jonas called it “the nicest temporary we’ve ever seen.”

The analyst added that the venue could exceed the operator’s forecasts of $50 million in year cash flow, which could prove pertinent as Bally’s looks for ways to finance the $1.7 billion permanent property.

The company “is exploring solutions to fund the project, which will likely include commitment of its own capital, some third-party aid, proceeds from a unique minority-equity plan, and possible real estate monetization elsewhere in the portfolio,” added Jonas. “Given a turbulent few years … management understands the importance of execution on what should turn out to be the flagship property in the company portfolio.”

Previously, Bally’s has engaged in sale-leaseback transactions, indicating it’s not shy about monetizing its real estate.

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