By most accounts, Vice President Kamala Harris was deemed the winner of Tuesday night’s presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Her strong performance wasn’t a total surprise, as she was the betting favorite on the political wagering exchange Polymarket to be considered the winner before the Tuesday showdown.
Polymarket, a decentralized wagering exchange that facilitates the buying and selling of shares of political outcomes, had Trump as the 2024 favorite before the debate. His stock was trading around 52 cents to Harris at 46 cents. Things have since changed.
Harris was poised on Tuesday night at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and spoke directly to the people. She baited her opponent into discussing the past, as the billionaire became visibly upset at times trying to defend his record and expose her and President Joe Biden’s.
Though Trump said Tuesday was his “best debate ever,” even Republican stalwarts said he had a bad night. He seemed unprepared at times, reverted to old talking points that have been proven not to resonate with independents or Republicans who aren’t so-called “MAGA Republicans,” and was perhaps overconfident in taking on his new Democratic rival.
Whatever prep the former casino billionaire did was a bust in the eyes of political bettors, who quickly moved their election positions to Harris.
Harris, Trump Neck and Neck
Trump has largely been the 2024 betting front-runner since his June debate with Biden, which led to the president announcing he wouldn’t seek a second term. Harris was the party’s hand-picked replacement, and so far, it’s a bet that’s paying off.
As Trump doubled down on his belief that the 2020 election was rigged and he was the rightful winner, the 2024 Polymarket contest moved in Harris’ favor. Another political wagering exchange, Betfair, reported a similar movement.
As of noon on September 11, Polymarket has Trump’s shares at 50 cents to Harris’ at 49 cents. Betfair’s 2024 odds imply a winning chance of 51.2% for Harris and even money, or 50%, for Trump.
UK sportsbooks, where political betting is allowed, also shortened Harris’ line while lengthening Trump’s. William Hill now has Harris at 4/5 (-125), or implied odds of 55.56%. Trump is at 10/11 (-110), or an implied chance of 52.38%.
Before the debate, Trump was favored at -125 and Harris was the underdog at +110.
Do Debates Matter?
While most everyone in the US is very familiar with Trump, Tuesday’s debate gave Harris her first major chance to resonate with the American people after avoiding most media interview requests and shying away from the limelight over the past three and a half years as second in command to the commander-in-chief.
Harris remained light on policy specifics, opting instead for a softer approach and trying to appeal to voters’ emotions. Trump was brash, with his supporters claiming it was a three-on-one debate, as ABC News moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis repeatedly fact-checked him while letting Harris’ talking points go unchecked.
Odds, and presumably next week’s polls, will show a shift in Harris’ favor, but voters will have the final say on November 5.
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