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Taylor Swift Effect: Kelce TD Most Bet Super Bowl Prop at DraftKings Except in Illinois

Taylor Swift might be having an impact on Super Bowl betting trends. As of Friday afternoon, the most wagered on Super Bowl proposition bet among DraftKings clients is Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce — Swift’s boyfriend — to score the first touchdown.

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Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and pop star Taylor Swift. She might be stirring interest in Super Bowl prop bets tied to the star tight end. (Image: Getty Images)

The caveat is that Illinois is the exception. Still, it’s an impressive anecdote because DraftKings offers mobile sports wagering in 24 states, including Illinois. It’s not immediately clear why bettors in the Land of Lincoln haven’t made the Kelce to score the first touchdown the top prop bet for the big game, but there’s speculation it’s because bettors there are heavily including that wager as a leg in same-game parlays (SGPs).

At this writing, DraftKings is offering the Kelce to score the first touchdown prop bet at +700 (bet $100 to win $700). That’s longer than the +600 offered by the sportsbook earlier today.

This year marks the fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years by the Chiefs, with Kelce on the roster for all those games. In the team’s 2020, 2021, and 2023 showings in the big game, in which it won two, the tight combined for 22 receptions on 27 targets for 257 yards and two touchdowns — one apiece in the 2020 and 2023 Super Bowls.

Kelce TD Prop Bet No Sure Thing

In the world of sports betting, there’s no such thing as a “lock,” and that’s certainly true of the Kelce prop bet. Hence, sportsbook operators such as DraftKings are offering long odds to entice bettors to embrace what’s essentially a long shot.

The potential success of the bet isn’t about Kelce or Swift. He’s widely regarded as one of the best tight ends of all-time and is viewed as being on the position’s “Mt. Rushmore” along with Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, and Shannon Sharpe.

Rather, the long odds on the Kelce prop wager may be attributable to the first quarter of Super Bowls being equivalent to the first rounds of heavyweight title weights, with the teams feeling each other out rather than attempting to land haymakers.

As a result, the first quarter in a Super Bowl isn’t always conducive to scoring touchdowns. In the first seven Super Bowls played this century, six featured no first-quarter touchdowns. The same is true of another six editions of the big game this century.

Swift Has Enhanced Popularity of Kelce Props

Swift will attend the Super Bowl, jetting to Las Vegas from a concert in Tokyo the night before, but she won’t be performing.

Owing to state-level regulations in the US, there will be no prop bets specific to the music star, but DraftKings and other sportsbooks are offering prop wagers inspired by Swift. In fact, DraftKings has a lengthy menu of such bets, each named after one of her hit singles, but the bets pertain to on-the-field action.

As the Kelce/Swift romance flourished during the regular season with her attending more Chiefs games, some gaming companies noted that they experienced an elevated handle on Kelce prop bets.

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Tilman Fertitta Bullish on DraftKings, Wynn Heading Into 2024

Tilman Fertitta controls the growing Golden Nugget casino empire, but he’s constructive on a pair of other gaming equities as 2024 looms.

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Tilman Fertitta in a 2020 interview. He’s bullish on shares of DraftKings and Wynn Resorts. (Image: CNBC)

In an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan, Fertitta waxed bullish on DraftKings(NASDAQ: DKNG) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) — two stocks in which he’s among the largest individual investors.

I think Wynn is still your premier gaming company in the United States,” said Fertitta in the interview. “If there’s business in Vegas, which there’s always been, Wynn is going to do the most business.”

On Oct. 31, 2022, it was revealed that the Golden Nugget boss and Houston Rockets owner took a 6.1% stake in Wynn, making him the second-largest individual shareholder in the stock behind only Elaine Wynn. That touched off speculation that Fertitta could eventually move to acquire Wynn outright. Such a transaction hasn’t materialized as of yet, but his desire to own a Las Vegas Strip casino resort is well-documented.

Wynn Could Be Winner for Fertitta

A 2022 Schedule 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicates Fertitta Entertainment, Fertitta himself, and another entity purchased 6.91 million shares of Wynn in October 2022.

Depending on exactly when in October 2022 those purchases were made, Fertitta is likely sitting on a modest though unrealized profit in Wynn shares. The stock closed at $87.21 on Oct. 1, 2022 and at $90.42 today. While that suggests lethargic price action in the name over the past year-plus, Fertitta remains optimistic in his outlook on Wynn.

“I’m very bullish on Wynn,” added Fertitta. “It’s been lingering down there in the 80s for the past few months and I expect for it to make a huge move soon.”

According to SEC filing activity, Fertitta has not added to or reduced his Wynn stake.

Fertitta Constructive on DraftKings, Too

Fertitta told Sullivan he’s the largest individual shareholder of DraftKings equity, though that’s likely in reference to the common stock as co-founder and CEO Jason Robins holds more than 90% of another class of shares that possess super voting rights.

Fertitta’s status as major DraftKings investors came about through the online sportsbook operator acquiring his Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG) — a $1.56 billion all-stock deal that closed in May 2022. That transaction paved the way for DraftKings to become one of the leaders by market share in domestic iGaming industry owing to GNOG’s established internet casino footprint in marquee markets such as New Jersey.

He remains bullish on DraftKings even as new competitors, such as ESPN Bet and Fanatics, enter the arena.

“It’s gonna really be four or five companies that are gonna own the sports betting industry,” Fertitta told Sullivan. “What you have to remember about that industry is it’s only in a few states. It’s not in California. It’s not in Texas. So many people are betting offshore now that when these big states get it, the amount of money that’s going to flow to the bottom line for these companies is extremely, extremely huge.”

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DraftKings Not Feeling Heat from New Competitors

The US sports wagering landscape is awash in new, well-heeled competitors, but DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) isn’t feeling adverse effects from those fresh entrants.

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A DraftKings billboard appears at Times Square in New York City after the company went public in April 2020. An analyst says the operator is gaining iGaming and sports betting market share. (Image: NASDAQ)

DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel amount to a duopoly in US online sports betting, controlling more than 70% of the market. Rivals believe they can pilfer some of that share, and there’s evidence to suggest Fanatics and Penn Entertainment’s (NASDAQ: PENN) ESPN Bet are off to solid starts, but that’s yet to be a headwind for DraftKings.

DraftKings cited no immediate impact from the ESPN Bet launch, and sees potential for the offering to grow the market,” Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial wrote in a report to clients.

The analyst recently met with executives from the gaming company. He rates the stock “hold” with a $40 price target, implying upside of 13.1% from today’s close at $35.35.

DraftKings Proving Resilient Against ESPN Bet

Fanatics and ESPN Bet are the two most ballyhooed new entrants to the sports betting landscape, with the latter debuting last month. The reasoning is simple: The operators have the resources to compete with behemoths DraftKings and FanDuel.

As more states have embraced regulated mobile sports wagering, some operators have opted against profligate spending simply for customer acquisition. As a result, some gaming companies scaled back US sports betting ambitions or left the market because it became difficult to generate profits after spending to gain mere market share scraps.

Fanataics and ESPN Bet could experience different outcomes over the long term, and while the latter appears to be off to a fast start, it’s not yet been a drain on DraftKings in the states where the operators compete against each other.

“Encouragingly, DraftKings has seen little impact to their customer base, noting comparable user churn & spending patterns during November and early December in states where they compete against ESPN Bet vs. states where ESPN Bet is not yet live,” added Stantial.

That could signal that ESPN Bet is taking share from other companies or growing the overall sports betting market.

iGaming, Product Development Could Boost DraftKings in 2024

Though the stock declined this week, DraftKings has more than tripled on a year-to-date basis. Demanding investors are asking, “What’s next?” meaning there’s a burden on the operator to deliver catalysts for market participants to remain engaged with the stock in 2024.

Those include new product offerings such as the Pick6 fantasy game and progressive parlays and gaining more iGaming share, which could be aided by favorable legislative outcomes next year.

“We remain constructive on the fundamental outlook for DraftKings, as same-state online sports betting & iCasino growth remains healthy, product mix drives net gaming revenue & margin upside, 2024 shows promise for new state legislation, and DraftKings continues to demonstrate resilience to new competition,” concluded Stantial. “However, valuation is demanding, and we remain cautious on potential iCasino market share deconsolidation. Hence we reiterate Hold, though remaining opportunistic on pullbacks.”

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DraftKings Positioned to Beat Q2 Estimates, Says Stifel Analyst

With the stock up a staggering 165.5% year-to-date, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is heading towards arguably its most important earnings report as a public company.

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Inside DraftKings’ Nevada office. The company is heading toward a vital earnings update on Thursday. (Image: Nevada Independent)

The only sportsbook operator is scheduled to deliver second-quarter results on Thursday after the close of US markets with a conference call slated for Friday morning. Analysts expect the gaming to post a loss of 25 cents a share based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) on revenue of $758.29 million for the June quarter.

Over the past 90 days, 17 of the analysts covering DraftKings upwardly revised earnings forecasts while none lowered estimates. In a since deleted tweet, CEO Jason Robins provided something of a tease, noting the gaming company notched 80% revenue growth in the first quarter in “vintage” states, or those in which DraftKings has been operational since 2018-19.

He added the company is experiencing “strong growth” in existing states and that there’s “massive potential in new markets.” Although the only specific data point mentioned in the tweet was already known to public investors, there’s speculation that the post may be in violation of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Fair Disclosure policies.

Big Test for DraftKings

DraftKings stock has a penchant for big post-earnings moves in either direction and it’s likely that expectations of positive effects from higher hold and declining costs are baked into the share price.

We see a likely upward bias to estimates, reflecting continued execution on product, sustained rationality in market-wide marketing/promos, and newfound cost discipline,” wrote Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial in a note to clients this evening. “However, longer-term we see risk of market share compression as DraftKings rationalizes customer acquisition spend, well-capitalized entrants expand in the U.S., and omni-channel competitors catch-up on product.”

Adding to the burden on DraftKings to deliver the goods tomorrow is the point that, as Stantial notes, the stock is stretched on valuation following this year’s run to the upside.

On the other hand, if DraftKings reports a narrower-than-expected loss and tightens its timeline to profitability, investors may be content to pay up for shares of company that is an entrenched online sports betting leader and adding iGaming market share.

“Still, we expect it will prove difficult to dislodge OSB market share from DraftKings/FanDuel without outsized marketing/promotional campaigns, and increasingly believe it may ultimately require impactful product innovation or structural industry evolution (e.g. transition to more in-play wagering) for a third player to rise to national prominence,” added Stantial.

Speaking of Profitability…

Heading into tomorrow’s earnings report, there may be added burden on DraftKings to provide positive insight regarding when it will stop losing money because rivals BetMGM and Caesars Digital recently posted profitable quarters.

Even if that news doesn’t arrive Thursday, DraftKings is trending in the right direction when it comes to generating significant earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in the coming years.

“Should current market share & margin expansion trends persist, we believe ~$1B of Adj. EBITDA in 2025E is feasible,” concludes Stantial.

 

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Coors, DraftKings Partnering on Super Bowl Commercial

It’s Super Bowl commercial rumor season. But there is confirmation that DraftKings and beer giant Molson Coors Beverage Co. are teaming up on an advertisement to be run during the Big Game.

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Rapper Ice Cube in a Coors Light commercial. Molson Coors is partnering with DraftKings on a Super Bowl ad. (Image: Dailymotion)

For Molson Coors, it marks a return to Super Bowl advertising following a 33-year absence caused by Budweiser Anheuser-Busch InBev maker holding exclusive rights to be the only alcohol brand featured during the game. The company ceded those rights last year.

Molson Coors has been teasing consumers and NFL fans with its return to the Super Bowl, running ads asking for input on which of its two famed lite beers — Coors Light or Miller Lite — should be featured.

The ad is expected to  announce that the brewer is teaming up with online betting site DraftKings to give consumers a chance to predict the contents of the brewer’s big game commercial—and earn money if they guess correctly,” reports Suzanne Vranica for the Wall Street Journal.

Some gaming companies are active in the predictive sports space. That’s because it’s an effective way to obtain data and identify new sports betting customers in states permitting that activity. Users like these offerings because free-to-play (F2P) games require no financial risk, while many offer cash or other compelling prizes to winners.

Popular examples of free-to-play predictive games with cash prizes include FOX Bet’s “Super 6” app, which features a slew of games spanning the NFL, college football, Major League Baseball, NASCAR, and more.

Coors Tapping Into Sports Betting Craze

By partnering with DraftKings, Molson Coors is signaling it sees value in reaching out to consumers that are enthusiastic about sports wagering.

For the gaming company, there’s potential value in the Super Bowl commercial partnership as well, because those looking to participate in the contest will need to log in to their DraftKings accounts or create one if they already haven’t.

The Wall Street Journal doesn’t mention if DraftKings and Molson Coors are splitting the cost of the ad. But it would be economical for the companies if that’s the route they select. Thirty-second Super Bowl spots are slated to cost $7 million this year, up from $6.5 million in 2022, while marking a 40% increase in just five years.

DraftKings rival FanDuel is running its own Super Bowl commercial with former NFL tight end Rob Gronkowski. Bettors that place a $5 wager on “Gronk” making or missing a field goal are eligible to receive a share of $10 million in prizes.

Bet on Big Booze Return to Super Bowl Ads

With Anheuser-Busch InBev bidding farewell to Super Bowl advertising, the floodgates are open for other alcohol brands to get in on the action.

In addition to Molson Coors, spirits brands Rémy Cointreau and Crown Royal, as well as European beer behemoth Heineken, are expected to run Super Bowl ads this year, according to the Journal.

The game airs Sunday, Feb. 12 on Fox.

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