Polymarket Faces Regulatory Block in France Over Illegal Gambling Concerns

French-regulator-blocks-crypto-predictions-operator-PolymarketFrance’s gambling regulator, l’Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has imposed a geo-block on Polymarket.com, a crypto-based prediction market platform, over allegations of illegal gambling. The platform, operated by Web3 developer Adventure One QSS and licensed in Panama, has been restricted from serving users in France since November 21, 2024.

Illegal Games of Chance in Focus

ANJ monitored Polymarket throughout November, identifying concerns over its offerings, including online games of chance such as slots, which remain prohibited under French law. These activities prompted ANJ to contact Adventure One QSS, leading to the implementation of geoblocking measures to restrict access for French users.

French residents attempting to access Polymarket now encounter a pop-up message explaining the restriction. Despite this, reports indicate that users have managed to bypass the block by using virtual private networks (VPNs), raising concerns about the effectiveness of such measures.

In addition to gambling violations, Polymarket’s prediction markets—where users trade shares on event outcomes—have drawn scrutiny for potential insider trading. A particularly notable case involved a French trader, known as “Theo,” who allegedly placed bets between $28 million and $40 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The volume of these bets sparked fears of market manipulation and heightened regulatory focus on the platform.

Broader Issues with Polymarket

Polymarket has faced similar legal challenges outside France. In 2022, the platform was fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without proper registration. Trading was temporarily halted following the penalty.

As of now, the ANJ has added Polymarket to its growing blacklist of over 944 URLs that violate French gambling laws. The regulator warns users about the risks of playing on unlicensed platforms, including potential identity theft, fraud, and non-payment of winnings.

“In general, the ANJ would like to warn people who play on illegal sites because they are exposing themselves to particularly serious risks,” the regulator said in a statement. It also advises players to consult its official list of licensed operators to ensure they are gambling legally.

Future of Online Slots in France

The Polymarket case arises at a time when France is reevaluating its stance on online gambling. In October 2024, the French government proposed an amendment to its 2025 budget, aiming to legalize online casino games, including slots. This move, supported by Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin, is set to undergo a six-month consultation in 2025.

While new legislation may take years to materialize, the consultation could pave the way for regulated online slots to launch by 2026. For now, ANJ remains firm in its enforcement of existing gambling laws, as demonstrated by its actions against Polymarket.

Challenges for Crypto-Based Platforms

Polymarket’s case highlights the difficulties crypto-based prediction platforms face in navigating regulatory landscapes. These platforms operate at the intersection of gambling, blockchain, and financial markets, often attracting scrutiny from multiple jurisdictions.

As Polymarket works to address compliance concerns in France, the broader question of how regulators manage crypto prediction markets remains unresolved. The platform’s ongoing engagement with stakeholders and adjustments to its offerings may shape its ability to operate within legal frameworks moving forward.

Source:

French regulator blocks crypto operator Polymarket“, igamingbusiness.com, December 2, 2024.

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Polymarket Activity Soars with Help from US Presidential Election

Polymarket, the internet-based marketplace that allows users to wager on everything from politics to pop culture to sports to weather, is experiencing soaring interest among users — much of which is supported by the US presidential election.

Donald Trump 2024 odds assassination
Donald Trump following an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, July 13, 2024. Increased interest in political betting is stoking a surge in activity on Polymarket. (Image: AP)

While 38 states and Washington, DC currently permit some form of sports wagering and seven allowed betting on the Oscars this year, political betting is prohibited in regulated markets in the US. Polymarket avoids regulatory scrutiny (mostly) because it doesn’t offer bets in the traditional sense. Rather, the cryptocurrency-based platform provides investors/bettors with an avenue to wager on outcomes by purchasing shares based on an event.

Shares on Polymarket are priced from $0 to $1 with a share trading at 50 cents implying even odds of the event occurring or not happening. Perhaps owing to unusual circumstances, including the assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden declaring he won’t seek a second term, Polymarket activity is surging.

Now that betting on the November election has approximated $290 million, both daily volume and number of new active traders have hit all-time highs of $20 million and 30,000, respectively,” noted ARK Invest analyst Lorenzo Valente.

Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2018 and experienced a substantial uptick in activity during the 2020 US presidential campaign as well.

Polymarket Adding New Accounts at Rapid Pace

Bettors’ enthusiasm for Polymarket is evident in the site’s prodigious pace of new account openings over the past three months.

May marked the first time more than 10,000 new Polymarket accounts were opened. The actual number was close to 20,000. In June, the number was roughly 35,000 and as of July 19, the figure was already close to 30,000, according to Dune Analytics data.

Polymarket
Polymaket account openings are soaring thanks to help from the US presidential election. (Image: ARK Invest)

Contracts on Polymarket are purchased via the polygon cryptocurrency, which is based on the ethereum blockchain. The token has ties to some other wagering entities.

Polygon solves pain points associated with blockchains, like high gas fees and slow speeds, without sacrificing on security. This multichain system is akin to other ones, such as Polkadot, Cosmos, Avalanche, etc., according to the token’s developers.

Polymarket Could Highlight Potential of Predictive Markets

There’s no denying that sports betting has taken flight in the US, but bettors want access to new markets, including politics. Traditional, regulated gaming companies cannot provide that access, but prediction markets can and that access could be a growth driver for companies such as Polymarket.

“Prediction markets could have real staying power, thanks to platforms that not only are tamper-proof and transparent but also provide liquid bets with real-time consensus data, not to mention the “wisdom of crowds” that provide highly accurate odds,” concludes ARK’s Valente. “As distrust of legacy media increases globally, prediction markets could become “information credibility” barometers that gauge public sentiment and surface truth.”

Current popular bets on Polymarket include the winner of the presidential race, whether or not Biden will finish his term, the country that will take home the most medals at the Summer Olympics and what team will win the Super Bowl.

 

 

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